Posted by Leslie
Leaders and innovators don’t wait for change to force their hands; they look down the road and anticipate how they can meet the future half-way.
In a recent lecture called “Six Ways to Save the Internet” at TEDxSantaCruz, tech investor Roger McNamee forecasted the coming of a new technology cycle and enumerated the six changes that he says are already transforming the ways people consume and create content.
Change #1: Windows Is Dying.
Smartphones are transforming the way people access content, and that has driven Windows down from a 96% share to less than 50%. It will likely dip to less than 30% in the next year and a half. That accounts for hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue—revenue that will make room for new industries.
Change #2: Index Search Has Peaked.
Google filled a desperate need when it burst on the scene with index search in 1998. It was so successful, in fact, that the index is now full of garbage. McNamee describes index search as a “digital Detroit” where you can find some very interesting things—or you can get mugged. Change is occurring quickly, because the rate of index search is much lower on smartphones. Specialized search is replacing the general index search, with niches filled by Wikipedia, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Match.com, TripAdvisor, Yelp and more.
Change #3: Apps Beat Web.
Apple has gone from being a small player in computers to shipping nearly 100 million Internet devices in 2012. The iPad has changed everything, and Apple is poised to own a majority of this market. The incredible new devices that are available now allow users to utilize apps with very specific functions instead of the generalized content they’re leaving behind on the Web.
Change #4: HTML 5 Changes It All.
HTML 5 is a profound programming language that allows users to construct entirely interactive Web pages. Flash boxes are gone. Anyone can use this technology to build highly differentiated content for WordPress, to promote bands… for just about anything. It’s highly compelling and simple to use. The days of hyper-commoditization are behind us, and the younger generation is ready to embrace the newest capabilities.
Change #5: Tablets Win Big.
iPads are the foundation of every important thing going on right now. This is the other side of why Windows is dead. The other players have made no impact in this market. Without a challenger, Apple could soon own 70% to 80% of the market and become $50 billion to $100 billion bigger than they are today.
Change #6: Social Platforms Set.
Facebook has won; it is the new Windows. There are certainly companies out there building successful platforms, but they’re much smaller. Social is now a feature, not a platform. Smart innovators are building systems that interface with Facebook rather than trying to compete with it.
The Future
The future will be different. Creativity is making a comeback, and technology is finally delivering the tools to make people independent. Imagine a world in which everything is an app. Envision an ad that is also a store. Companies can both create demand and satisfy it at the same time. Instead of a model in which users reach out for content, taking an elevator to different levels and wandering off, it’s becoming a control-panel model where everything is central and immediately accessible.
Can’t imagine it? There isn’t long to wait.